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今日匯評
歐元出現強勁反彈持續24小時,據推測,希臘可能解決一些懸而未決的問題,確保進一步援助現金。昨天下午,希臘政府發言人宣佈,政治領導人定於今天中午應對新的三駕馬車建議;這一發展似乎表明一個潛在的交易已經達成或非常接近被敲響。此外,似乎債務情況有進展。在抗戰初期,歐洲央行已初步同意參與債務掉期轉讓其持有的efsf採購成本,取決於參與私營部門投資者。
積極的希臘新聞不僅具有煽動歐元上漲,也掀起了風險偏好,足以催化良好收益的股票市場。日經指數上漲1.10%,亨森歌+ 1.4%和+ 2.4%上海複合材料。金價已經從昨日低點1710美元恢復到1750美元的水平,原油現在徘徊在每桶99美元。美元兌日元設法爬上77的第一次,以去除一些壓力,外匯市場日本央行和財政部採取戲劇性的行動。我們還希望日本當局保持敏銳地意識到美元兌日元走勢,而不要懷疑他們願意再次開始介入日元大幅升值。
今天的會議沒有重要經濟數據發佈,市場可能會繼續專注於即將到來的希臘公告。明天我們將獲得最新的英國央行和歐洲央行的貨幣政策會議;以及歐洲央行新聞發佈記者會盤問馬里奧德拉吉的性質和影響歐洲央行的債務交換的參與。
The euro has rallied strongly over the last 24 hours as speculation mounts that Greece is close to resolving some of the outstanding issues standing in the way of securing further bailout cash. Yesterday afternoon, a Greek government spokesman announced that political leaders had scheduled to meet today and respond to the latest troika proposals by noon; a development which seems to suggest a potential deal has been struck or is very close to being struck. Additionally there appears to be progress made on the debt swap situation. After initial resistance, the ECB has tentatively agreed to participate in the debt swap by transferring its holdings at purchase cost to the EFSF, contingent on the participation of private sector investors.
The positive Greece news has not only fanned euro crosses higher, but also lifted risk appetite sufficiently to catalyze good gains in the equity markets. The Nikkei is up 1.10%, Hang Seng +1.4% and Shanghai Composite +2.4%. Gold has recovered to $1750 levels from yesterday’s low of $1710, and crude oil is now hovering around $99 per barrel. USDJPY has managed to climb above 77.00 for the first time this month, taking some of the pressure off the BoJ and Japanese Ministry of Finance to take dramatic action in the FX market. We still expect the Japanese authorities to remain acutely aware of USDJPY movements, and do not doubt their willingness to intervene should the yen begin to appreciate sharply once again.
There are no major economic data releases due in today’s session so the market is likely to remain focused on the upcoming Greece announcements. Tomorrow we will get the latest BoE and ECB monetary policy meetings; and the ECB press conference should be particularly interesting as journalists will get to grill Mario Draghi on the nature and implications of the ECB’s debt swap involvement.
機構來源:ACM
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