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    <div class="title heiti zi24 yanse1">雷曼兄弟：四川地震對中國經濟影響暫時而有限</div>
    <div class="date p12 pubdate">http://www.enorth.com.cn　 
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2008-05-13 22:11
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<p>　　中國四川省在本周一遭遇七點八級地震。雷曼兄弟今日發布的最新研究報告認為，四川地震對中國經濟增長所產生的影響是暫時而有限的。</p>

<p>　　該報告稱，盡管地震造成了許多人命傷亡，對基礎設施造成了極大破壞，但我們預計地震對於中國經濟增長的影響將是短暫及有限的。就人口數量和農業產出而言，四川是一個大省，但其工業和和制造業的產量在中國總量中所佔的份額相對較小。四川省及重慶市二00六年在中國的工業總產值僅佔百分之三點五，二00七年其出口份額僅為全國百分之一。此外，對於在該地區擁有生產設施的大型公司，由於在運輸和生產上可能出現臨時中斷，其生產可能臨時轉移到其他省市。因而，盡管我們預計地震對於四川(以及周邊地區)交通及生產可能造成暫時中斷，但對於中國工業生產和出口影響有限。</p>

<p>　　報告說，初步判斷地震對中國二00八年第二季度GDP增長影響輕微。作為地震過後的重建措施，政府應該增加財政支出和推進下半年固定資產投資。報告認為，因為消費和投資需求的增加，地震對農業生產的潛在破壞作用也在增加。但總的來說，報告認為相對於今年一月和二月曾影響到中國更大部分地區、而且影響持續時間較長的雪災來說，地震對中國經濟的影響要小。完</p>
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張晉
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